To LiDAR, or NOT to LiDAR?

By Roger C. Lanctot
Founder
StrategiaNow Consulting

Car makers have always insisted that their vehicles are safe, yet thousands of people die every day on highways all over the world.  In their defense, car makers have routinely, increasingly, and speciously blamed drivers for the carnage.  But what if we have the technology within our grasp to prevent crashes and save lives?

To address this question, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) brought forth a new rule last year—Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard No. 127—to make automatic emergency braking (AEB) and pedestrian AEB standard for new cars and light trucks by September 2029.  NHTSA expects the new standard to save 360 lives annually once implemented.

The new standard requires that all cars be able to stop and avoid contact with a vehicle in front of them at up to 62 miles per hour and that the systems must detect pedestrians in both daylight and darkness.  In addition, the standard requires that the system apply the brakes automatically up to 90 mph when a collision with a lead vehicle is imminent, and up to 45 mph when a pedestrian is detected.

The move by NHTSA touched off a wave of testing and innovation across the industry as radar, LiDAR, and thermal sensors were swiftly put under the microscope to determine whether or not they were up to the task of fulfilling the mandate.  Each of these sensing technologies has its own strengths and weaknesses with thermal, in particular, singled out for its suitability to detecting pedestrians in low-light conditions.

Finalized in April 2024, the new standard propelled the U.S. to the forefront of fostering safe motor vehicle design and operation and put pressure on European agencies including the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (home of WP.29 rules and standards) and global New Car Assessment Program standards.  But car makers in the U.S. resisted.

Rather than lead the safety charge, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI) filed suit seeking repeal of the new AEB rule.  The AAI asserts that the new requirement is “flawed,” “practically impossible with available technology,” and likely to “lead to unsafe unintended consequences,” according to AAI CEO John Bozzella.  However, the AAI’s position contrasts with the view of the growing mass of research from suppliers of LiDAR technology, which is demonstrably able to fulfill the requirement.

Since the AEB announcement, companies making LiDAR sensors have received renewed attention.  The AEB standard highlights the shortcomings of existing camera-only or camera-centric solutions relied upon by Tesla and Mobileye which are prone to both false-positive and false-negative events, resulting in crashes.

NHTSA has not specified the type of sensing technology or combination of technologies to be used to fulfill the mandate.  LiDAR is the logical candidate as it is far less vulnerable to false detections.

The challenge for U.S. automakers is the risk of being the first to introduce LiDAR.  If LiDAR renders a car measurably safer to operate, what does that mean for current and upcoming models lacking LiDAR?

By now, the inevitability of LiDAR implementation in the interest of safety has become clear.  Auto makers that deploy LiDAR early will gain a competitive advantage.  The AEB mandate raises the stakes and ups the pressure to adopt safer design principles.

Simultaneous with the recognition of the importance of LiDAR, the cost of the technology is spiraling downward—a trajectory that will accelerate with regulatory support.  Soon, auto makers will be confronted with a mobility world characterized by cars with LiDAR and those without LiDAR.

This reminds me of how guilty I felt when my youngest son was (briefly) the owner and driver of a 1996 Saturn that pre-dated airbag mandates.  It was scary to ponder the prospect of my son being subject to a crash without the protection of an airbag.

Like airbags, the “before” and “after” of LiDAR-equipped cars evokes a moral imperative.  Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s claims that LiDAR is “unnecessary” will be seen in a different light if LiDAR becomes the technology capable of making the allegedly “impossible” task of reducing road deaths possible.

The stated goal of NHTSA in requiring this enhanced form of AEB technology on new cars is to expand the benefits of vehicle safety beyond the realm of luxury by making it standard.  It’s clear that when it comes to fuel efficiency, and now vehicle safety, car makers often need a push.  The implementation of LiDAR technology may cost a little money, but what’s the value of saving one life, or 360 lives, or more?  Car makers should be embracing safety, not fighting it.